Publicación Oficial de la Sociedad Ecuatoriana de Neurología, de la Liga Ecuatoriana Contra la Epilepsia y de la Sociedad Iberoamericana de Enfermedad Cerebrovascular

Análisis de Regresión

 

Mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en Ecuador 2001- 2015: Estudio de tendencias, aplicación del modelo de regresión joinpoint. Mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases in Ecuador 2001- 2015: a trend study, application of the joinpoint regression model.

Objective. To analyze the mortality trend for cerebrovascular diseases in Ecuador and to identify the presence of changes in the temporal trend using the joinpoint regression model.

Materials and Methods. A mixed ecological study was carried out. Standardized mortality rates for the last 15 years (2001 to 2015) in Ecuador were calculated and stratified by age, sex, and provinces. A joinpoint regression analysis was used for analysis of trends.

Results. From 2001 to 2015, there were 48,621 deaths from cerebrovascular diseases in Ecuador. In the joinpoint regression analysis, age-adjusted rates in men declined from 71.4 to 59.5 deaths per 100,000 population, with an annual decline of 1.51% (p <0.05) in females from 61.2 to 55.5 deaths per 100,000 population, with an annual decrease of 1.11% (p <0.05). In the analysis by provinces, Sucumbíos presented a growing trend of 3.17% per year (p <0.05).

Conclusions. Mortality from cerebrovascular disease has declined in Ecuador in the last 15 years. The downward trend was observed in almost all age demographics.

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